Mortality in First Eight Months of 2024 2% Higher Than Predicted - Actuaries Digital
First 8 mos of 2024:
"COVID-19 mortality was 70% higher than predicted; total mortality was 2% higher than predicted;"
If you want to point at any other driving cause besides COVID, to be credible it will need to:
“If you want to point at any other driving cause besides COVID, to be credible it will need to:
- Be new in 2020, pause until late 2021 then resume
- Result in historically massive increases
- Be timed perfectly in sync with the waves and lulls of COVID, for the last 4-5 years.” 🧵
Because covid is over and no one dies of it any more and because it's a cold covid deaths in England have settled into a nicely predictable 100-200 deaths a week other than in winter when they go up to 300-400 per week. Because it's a cold, no one dies of it now and it's over
“Because covid is over and no one dies of it any more and because it's a cold covid deaths in England have settled into a nicely predictable 100-200 deaths a week other than in winter when they go up to 300-400 per week. Because it's a cold, no one dies of it now and it's over”
“The US reported an average 1500 COVID-19 deaths a week for 2023 – comparable to fentanyl or firearm deaths.”
“The US reported an average 1500 COVID-19 deaths a week for 2023 – comparable to fentanyl or firearm deaths.”
This wasn’t from health officials but insurance actuaries.
Covid-19 may lead to longest period of peacetime excess mortality, says new Swiss Re report | Swiss Re
“Fluctuations in excess mortality tend to be short-term, reflecting developments such as a large-scale medical breakthrough or the negative impact of a large epidemic. However, as society absorbs these events, excess mortality should revert to the baseline.
With COVID-19 this has not been the case and all-cause excess mortality is still above the pre-pandemic baseline. In 2021, excess mortality spiked to 23% above the 2019 baseline in the US, and 11% in the UK. As Swiss Re Institute's report estimates, in 2023, it remained significantly elevated in the range of 3–7% for the US, and 5–8% for the UK.
If the underlying drivers of current excess mortality continue, Swiss Re Institute's analysis estimates that excess mortality may remain as high as 3% for the US and 2.5% for the UK by 2033."
What does the percentage increase in deaths mean in real numbers? Roughly 3 million people die in the US every year of various causes (cancer, heart disease, accidents, etc). The 3-7% increase in 2023 represents a 3-7% increase in that 3m number, so roughly 90-210k more deaths. This places Covid-19 solidly among the top five killers in the US.
COVID-19 :
There were MORE COVID DEATHS in the US in 2020, than INFLUENZA DEATHS in a DECADE !
Alberta's COVID-19 death toll more than 4 times higher than flu over past year | CBC News
"We're seeing people who have COVID and all of the sudden are coming into hospital with blood clots, heart attacks, strokes. So we still are very much living in a COVID world."
Flere unge døde av sykdom: Forskere slår alarm
“Disease claimed an unusually large number of young lives last year. Researchers fear that late effects of covid-19 are the cause…
…The Institute of Public Health's report on what Norwegians died of last year is grim reading. For the first time in several years, a higher mortality rate has been recorded among young people aged 1–39…
…Researcher and statistician Richard White at FHI fears that covid-19 is one of the main explanations for the increased mortality. He believes that repeated infections have led to poorer health for many young Norwegians.
- I am concerned that the consequences of covid-19 are not being adequately assessed by the Norwegian authorities. The government's strategy does not mention the late effects of covid-19. I am concerned that those who recommended the ‘free infection’ policy in 2022 are too afraid to change course, says White.”
Disease claimed an unusually large number of young lives last year. Researchers fear that late effects of covid-19 are the cause.
One of the saddest things about losing my dad this summer is talking with others who have lost a medically vulnerable loved one because of Covid.
It's staggering how many people have been killed by COVID worldwide
“The Burj Khalifa, the tallest building in the world, has a mass of around 500,000 metric tons. To match 1.69 million metric tons (the estimated weight of all the bodies of those excess deaths due to the pandemic), you would need around 3.4 Burj Khalifas.”
The two main takeaways from this graph are the following:
Overall, fewer than 20% of COVID-19 deaths are being reported in these public places in all provinces (a bit higher in Quebec in fall/winter season, but not much).
Provinces are only reporting 20% of COVID deaths, that would mean that Alberta's 735 deaths in the last 12 months is actually around 3675. Which would be by far the #1 cause of death.
US record-keeping is similarly limited/skewed
World's Largest Mortality Data Repository! - Mortality Watch
it's very clear from the pre pandemic baseline that covid rather than cancer or drugs is doing the heavy lifting on these deaths. age groups registering excess death are 10-19 and 30-49. All those died young and suddenly anecdotes, while down from the heights of the pandemic, continue to tally with the data