“Current transmission (red line) closely tracks that of summer 2023 (yellow line).

We expect to break 500k daily infections between July 9 and the end of July.”

“PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, Nov 11, 2024

We're starting to get out 1st glimpse of the shape of the winter wave.

🔸Expected transmission a month from now: 1.3 million daily infections 🔸Best-case: 0.7 million daily infections 🔸Worst-case: 1.8 million daily infections

There's nothing in the data yet to suggest the winter will be markedly different from last year, which is very bad news. Within 3 weeks, we'll have a much better sense of what path we're on and what the peak of the wave may look like, likely around NYE.”