PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, Dec 2, 2024
“In a best-case scenario, we could see 700,000 daily infections/day near the peak. Worst-case, probably 1.4 million. These are all very bad levels of transmission, but nowhere near last winter, where we peaked near 2 million daily infections.
There's a reasonable chance the winter peak will be smaller than the summer wave. That's good news in terms of lower anticipated transmission, but bad news in that our lulls are bad and peaks are still terrible. “