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PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, August 26, 2024
PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, August 26, 2024

August 26, 2024 “We're in uncharted territory during the back-to-school period.

1.2 million people in the U.S. are getting infected per day.

1 in 41 people (2.5%) are actively infectious.

The year-over-year graphs shows that we are experiencing much high transmission than during previous back-to-school periods.

This is a much higher and wider wave than Y1, Y2, and Y4 of the pandemic. Year 3's summer wave was very bad, but much earlier.

The 1-day isolation period, decline in most other mitigation, and a culture of denialism ("post pandemic," "Covid is over,") will fuel many infections among young people, teachers, school staff, and parents.

Expect absences at schools. Expect substantial workforce problems related to sick parents…transmission will likely remain >1 million infections per day for the next month and counting.”

·x.com·
PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, August 26, 2024