Stephen Kotkin - "NATO Expansion" was a Pretext, not a Reason, for Putin's Invasion
Full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylaC0MUleZs
"…we had this debate in the early part of the cold war. Peter, we had this debate where people said, ‘you know, we didn't respect soviet sensitivities, we didn't respect stalin's psychology and look what happened — he conquered all his neighbors because he was disrespected. He conquered eastern europe, he conquered northeast asia. We should have respected him more'.
Peter, i'm sorry but that argument is bunk. There are internal processes in Putin's russia, which started in Yeltsin's russia — which predate both of them by a long long time — where the recourse to autocracy, the recourse to repression, the recourse to militarism the suspicion of foreigners these are not reactions to something that the west does or doesn't do. These are internal processes that had a dynamic of their own and that NATO expansion became a pretext or an excuse, post-facto, for many years that we've now been having this, i would say, self-flagellation.
Let's imagine that we don't expand the security perimeter and the realm of freedom. Where would those countries be right now? Where would Czechoslovakia, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania — where would they be right now? They would potentially be in the same place as Ukraine. So the causality is the opposite here."