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The demand for forecasts grows after a surprise. It’s quite an irony. Surprises make you feel like you’re not in control, which is when it feels best to grab the wheel with both hands, listening to those who tell you what happens next despite being blindsided by what just happened. That’s where we are with Covid and the economy. Ten months after the surprise of our lifetimes, everyone wants a clear map of the future. Who wins? Who loses? When will travel recover? Will work be the same? Have we learned our lesson? But the most important economic stories don’t require forecasts; they’ve alrea...

The Kelly Criterion is a relatively simple math equation to determine the percentage of your bankroll you should bet on any given circumstance, assuming you have an advantage. The goal of the equation is this: don’t go broke. The equation tells you exactly how much to bet on each “hand” so that you

When you experience someone else’s genius work, a little part of you feels, “That’s what I could have, would have, and should have done!”

Over the years, I’ve learned a few lessons that have made me a better investor: Be humble. Only invest in the best businesses. Quality is more important than valuation. The best managers are adaptable. Hold on to winners. It’s OK to be wrong, but don’t stay wrong. Don’t fight the Fed.

They’re like fish: you just gotta catch them.

I went from being a bad writer to a good writer after taking a one-day course in “business writing.” I couldn’t believe how simple it was. I’ll tell you the main tricks here so you don’t have to waste a...

Learn how to write well. Topics include figuring out what to write about, how to write an introduction, the writing process, writing style, and copyediting.

Learn how to write an introduction paragraph. This guide explains the writing process for introductions, as well as the process for deciding what to write about.

"You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards" — Steve Jobs Stanford Commencement

Explores Steve Jobs thoughts on creativity and how we need to synthesize knowledge across time and disciplines in order to create and innovate.

This article explores James Webb Young's book A Technique for Producing Ideas, which has shaped how we view idea formation since the 1940s.

Any creator of anything knows this feeling:

On Volitional Philanthropy (a short essay!) T. E. Lawrence, the English soldier, diplomat and writer, possessed what...

Wonkiness is an algorithm for fresh ideas.

Society has traditionally rewarded people who fit in, but the Internet rewards people who stand out.

“The real enemy is the man who tries to mold the human spirit so that it will not dare to spread its wings.” – Abraham Flexner The best opportunities are the ones you never expected. They’re serendipitous. Serendipity is a state of mind. Serendipity births unexpected opportunities which fuel progress and push us in fruitful

To make a living as a creator, you only need 100 true fans, not 1,000. There's four necessary components necessary to make a living off a smaller base of true fans: premium content and community; results and transformation; accountability; and recognition, access, and status.

The difference between brands that stand out and those that blend in.

On sharing what you have learned and learning in return.

The Business Model of Good Taste

Because perfect is impossible and perfectionism is about hiding.

Refine your intuition, and trust your judgment.

The case for consistent writing is less about self-improvement, and more about economics. Here's why.

How to think about writing, promotion, and community

The secret tips, tricks, and habits of those who make a great living writing.