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We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse

Gross domestic product would see a peak hit of 0.5 percentage point in the second half of next year in that scenario, with the effects abating in 2026, the Goldman team estimated.

Should Vice President Kamala Harris win and Democrats secure control of both chambers of Congress, “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates,” the Goldman economists wrote. That would result in “a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026.”

Goldman expects a Harris administration to oversee a slowdown in new arrivals to 1.5 million a year — still higher than the pre-pandemic average of around 1 million. A Trump administration would likely prompt a sharper slowdown, to 1.25 million or — if Republicans take Congress and boost resources for enforcement — 750,000 a year.

30,000 a month higher than if Republicans sweep, Goldman’s economists wrote.

Trump’s likely tariff hikes on China, the EU and Mexico would lead to an inflationary bump, with a peak impact of 30 to 40 basis points on the Federal Reserve’s preferred price gauge, the bank’s economists wrote. An additional 10% universal tariff, which the GOP candidate has floated, would have a bigger impact though it would take longer.

Republican nominee Donald Trump and running mate JD Vance are campaigning on a grab bag of tax cut proposals that could collectively cost as much as $10.5 trillion over a decade