What’s more likely is a redirection of focus away from consumers. Moscow will “aim to accelerate a transfer of scarce labor and capital from sectors deemed non-essential, such as services, residential construction and finance, to those that are considered critical to giving Putin a military advantage,” Isakov says. A true war economy, in other words.

This reality is starting to sink in: even Russia’s official public policy approval index shows a decline this year. It’s now around the lowest reading since the start of the war. —Chris Anstey