What’s more likely is a redirection of focus away from consumers. Moscow will “aim to accelerate a transfer of scarce labor and capital from sectors deemed non-essential, such as services, residential construction and finance, to those that are considered critical to giving Putin a military advantage,” Isakov says. A true war economy, in other words.

This reality is starting to sink in: even Russia’s official public policy approval index shows a decline this year. It’s now around the lowest reading since the start of the war. —Chris Anstey

China’s property slowdown is now in its third year and there’s still no clear sign of stabilization, meaning the drag on sentiment and consumption continues. Against that backdrop, economists at Goldman Sachs including Chelsea Song and Andrew Tilton have taken a look at the sector. They find:

“Top-tier cities are more likely to reach a price bottom sooner, driven by stronger migration inflows, lower inventory levels and the recent easing of housing purchase restrictions, while the house price recovery in lower-tier cities is likely to be prolonged.”