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Wie schlecht geht es der deutschen Wirtschaft? (05.09.2024)
Wie schlecht geht es der deutschen Wirtschaft? (05.09.2024)
Stagnation statt Wachstum: Das ifo-Institut hat seine Konjunkturprognose gesenkt, auch andere Institute rechnen für 2024 nicht mehr mit einem Wachstum. Wie schlecht geht es der Wirtschaft wirklich? Von L. Hiltscher.
Wie schlecht geht es der deutschen Wirtschaft? (05.09.2024)
Goldman Economists Assess Impact of Presidential Election Outcome on GDP (03.09.2024)
Goldman Economists Assess Impact of Presidential Election Outcome on GDP (03.09.2024)
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists gamed out the potential economic implications of a Republican or Democratic victory in the November elections, cautioning that US GDP faces a hit in the case of a win for Donald Trump.
We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse
Gross domestic product would see a peak hit of 0.5 percentage point in the second half of next year in that scenario, with the effects abating in 2026, the Goldman team estimated.
Should Vice President Kamala Harris win and Democrats secure control of both chambers of Congress, “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates,” the Goldman economists wrote. That would result in “a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026.”
Goldman expects a Harris administration to oversee a slowdown in new arrivals to 1.5 million a year — still higher than the pre-pandemic average of around 1 million. A Trump administration would likely prompt a sharper slowdown, to 1.25 million or — if Republicans take Congress and boost resources for enforcement — 750,000 a year.
30,000 a month higher than if Republicans sweep, Goldman’s economists wrote.
Trump’s likely tariff hikes on China, the EU and Mexico would lead to an inflationary bump, with a peak impact of 30 to 40 basis points on the Federal Reserve’s preferred price gauge, the bank’s economists wrote. An additional 10% universal tariff, which the GOP candidate has floated, would have a bigger impact though it would take longer.
Goldman Economists Assess Impact of Presidential Election Outcome on GDP (03.09.2024)
The real problem with China’s economy (05.09.2024)
The real problem with China’s economy (05.09.2024)

Hier sind die Hauptprobleme der chinesischen Wirtschaft in Punkten zusammengefasst:

  • Vertrauenskrise: Es herrscht ein tiefes Misstrauen gegenüber den offiziellen Daten und Statistiken, was die Entscheidungsfindung sowohl im öffentlichen als auch im privaten Sektor beeinträchtigt.

  • Manipulation von Daten: Die Regierung wird beschuldigt, wirtschaftliche Daten zu manipulieren und sensible Informationen zu unterdrücken, was zu einem verzerrten Bild der wirtschaftlichen Realität führt.

  • Rückkehr zu restriktiver Informationspolitik: Die zunehmende Zensur und Kontrolle über Informationen erinnern an die Praktiken der Sowjetunion, was die Effizienz der wirtschaftlichen Entscheidungsfindung beeinträchtigt.

  • Einschränkung individueller Freiheiten: Die repressiven Maßnahmen der Regierung führen zu einem Rückgang der individuellen Freiheiten, was die Innovationskraft und das wirtschaftliche Wachstum hemmt.

  • Schwierigkeiten bei der Kapitalallokation: Durch die schwächeren Preissignale wird die Allokation von Kapital schwieriger, was in einer Zeit, in der China auf neue Industrien angewiesen ist, problematisch ist.

Diese Punkte verdeutlichen die komplexen Herausforderungen, vor denen die chinesische Wirtschaft steht.

The real problem with China’s economy (05.09.2024)
ECB Cuts Set to Become Trickier Once Key Rate Falls to Near 3% (03.09.2024)
ECB Cuts Set to Become Trickier Once Key Rate Falls to Near 3% (03.09.2024)
Decisions at the European Central Bank are set to get a lot more contentious once interest rates fall to about 3% and clashes emerge over what’s still needed to keep inflation in check, according to people familiar with the matter.
ECB Cuts Set to Become Trickier Once Key Rate Falls to Near 3% (03.09.2024)
Rate Options Show Rising Bets on a Half-Point Fed Cut This Month (04.09.2024)
Rate Options Show Rising Bets on a Half-Point Fed Cut This Month (04.09.2024)
Rate options traders stepped up wagers that the Federal Reserve will kick off its easing cycle with a half-percentage-point cut this month, reflecting the increasing speculation that policymakers will act aggressively to keep the economy from sputtering.
Rate Options Show Rising Bets on a Half-Point Fed Cut This Month (04.09.2024)
Capital Gains Tax Rate Should Be Below 39.6%, Harris Says (04.09.2024)
Capital Gains Tax Rate Should Be Below 39.6%, Harris Says (04.09.2024)
Vice President Kamala Harris called for a 28% capital gains tax rate on people earning $1 million or more, touting it as a measure that would ensure the wealthy paid their fair share as she sought to detail her economic agenda and draw a contrast with Republican rival Donald Trump.
Capital Gains Tax Rate Should Be Below 39.6%, Harris Says (04.09.2024)
Bostic Says Risks to Fed’s Jobs, Inflation Goals Now in Balance (04.09.2024)
Bostic Says Risks to Fed’s Jobs, Inflation Goals Now in Balance (04.09.2024)
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said the central bank’s two mandates — stable prices and maximum employment — are now in balance for the first time since 2021, though he added he is “not quite prepared” to declare victory over inflation.
Bostic Says Risks to Fed’s Jobs, Inflation Goals Now in Balance (04.09.2024)
Trump Tax Plan: Calculating the Cost and Outlook for US Deficit (04.09.2024)
Trump Tax Plan: Calculating the Cost and Outlook for US Deficit (04.09.2024)
Republican nominee Donald Trump and running mate JD Vance are campaigning on a grab bag of tax cut proposals that could collectively cost as much as $10.5 trillion over a decade, a massive sum that would exceed the combined budgets of every domestic federal agency.
Republican nominee Donald Trump and running mate JD Vance are campaigning on a grab bag of tax cut proposals that could collectively cost as much as $10.5 trillion over a decade
Trump Tax Plan: Calculating the Cost and Outlook for US Deficit (04.09.2024)