#dieWIRTSCHAFTSPRAXIS-VW.THINKTANK I STATUS.QUO Q1/2025

Since the euro came into existence in 1999, the currency has traded at equal value to the US dollar only a handful of times. The last instance was in 2022, after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine sparked an energy crisis in Europe and provoked fears of a recession, plunging the currency pair to a 1:1 ratio for the first time in two decades. Now, market watchers see a chance it will happen again.

British and German firms in China are having a tougher time doing business and worry about the outlook for next year, according to two new surveys.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said an interest-rate cut this month isn’t certain but remains on the table for policymakers.

China’s services activity expanded less than a month earlier, a private survey showed, a sign that consumer demand remains sluggish despite Beijing’s recent stimulus push.

The European Central Bank will continue to ease policy in the coming months, Governing Council member Olli Rehn told Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat.

China announced an outright ban on several materials crucial to chip-making from being exported to the US citing concerns over military usage, in a tit-for-tat move after President Joe Biden’s government escalated technology curbs on Beijing.

Short-maturity Treasury yields were poised to end a volatile session lower after several Federal Reserve officials said they backed additional interest-rate cuts as soon as this month.

Die österreichische Wirtschaft wird sich laut der Organisation für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (OECD) im kommenden Jahr leicht erholen. Sie rechnet für 2025 mit einem realen Wachstum des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) von 1,1 Prozent, 2026 soll dann ein Plus von 1,4 Prozent folgen. 2024 dürfte die österreichische Wirtschaft noch um 0,5 Prozent schrumpfen, wie die Organisation am Mittwoch in ihrem ökonomischen Ausblick mitteilte.

The global economy faces proliferating risks ranging from trade tensions to wars and debt troubles that could threaten its “remarkable resilience” of past years, the OECD said.

The global economy remains resilient, despite differences in the strength of activity and incomes across countries and sectors. Inflation has continued to fall, supporting real incomes, but consumer confidence is yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels in many countries. Global growth is projected to be 3.2% this year and 3.3% in 2025 and 2026, with inflation easing further. Nonetheless, the outlook is highly uncertain. An intensification of geopolitical tensions or global trade restrictions could hamper further disinflation and weaken the growth outlook. At the same time, future shocks could trigger disruptive corrections in financial markets, magnified by high debt and stretched asset valuations. The key policy priorities are to ensure a continued and lasting decline in inflation, enhanced efforts to establish a credible fiscal path that will secure debt sustainability, and ambitious reforms to raise sustainable and inclusive growth in the medium term.This issue includes an assessment of the global economic situation, a chapter on developments in labour shortages and associated policy considerations and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.

Central banker Christine Lagarde needs to point to a steady unwinding of restrictive interest rates.

Central banker Christine Lagarde needs to point to a steady unwinding of restrictive interest rates.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said any reduction in interest rates at next week’s decision will be “moderate.”

Der Handelsstreit zwischen Peking und Washington spitzt sich zu. China lässt die Ausfuhr von Gallium, Germanium und Antimon in die USA nicht mehr zu. Man verwendet die Materialien für Mikrochips oder Glasfaserkabel.

The European Central Bank’s data-dependent and gradual approach to setting monetary policy remains appropriate, Governing Council member Martins Kazaks says in presentation for online event.

Surveys since Donald Trump’s election victory show American companies are growing more upbeat about their prospects in anticipation of more pro-business policies and less regulatory burden.

Surveys since Donald Trump’s election victory show American companies are growing more upbeat about their prospects in anticipation of more pro-business policies and less regulatory burden.

China’s central bank governor reaffirmed plans for a supportive monetary policy to promote growth next year, as the economy faces fresh challenges from a looming trade war with the US during Donald Trump’s second term.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said officials will likely need to lower rates further to move policy to a neutral stance now that risks to inflation and employment have become more balanced.

China’s top leaders plan to start the annual closed-door Central Economic Work Conference next Wednesday to map out economic targets and stimulus plans for 2025, according to people familiar with the matter.

China’s top leaders plan to start the annual closed-door Central Economic Work Conference next Wednesday to map out economic targets and stimulus plans for 2025, according to people familiar with the matter.

Zu Beginn der Woche hat es bei einer UNO-Konferenz zu Umwelt und Klima erneut einen Rückschlag gegeben – wieder einmal aufgrund einer Blockade von Saudi-Arabien. Die Konferenzen geraten zunehmend unter Zugzwang. Doch ob die nächste, die ausgerechnet in Riad stattfindet, einen Erfolg bringen kann, bleibt fraglich, nicht zuletzt das Einstimmigkeitsprinzip hat sich bisher als unüberwindliche Hürde erwiesen.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he’s undecided on whether an interest-rate cut is needed this month, but still believes officials should continue lowering rates over the coming months.

Three Federal Reserve officials on Monday made clear they expect the US central bank to continue cutting interest rates over the next year, but stopped short of saying they are committed to making the next reduction later this month.

Die KIM-VO (Kreditinstitute-Immobilienfinanzierungsmaßnahmen-Verordnung), die strenge Regeln für die Vergabe von Wohnkrediten vorgegeben hat, wird im kommenden Jahr auslaufen. Auf Basis der aktuellen Situation sieht das Finanzmarktstabilitätsgremium (FMSG) bei der Wohnkreditvergabe keine systemischen Risiken für den Bankensektor.

Donald Trump’s pressure on countries around the world to stay anchored to a US-dollar-based financial system is a tactic that risks backfiring, market watchers say.

US President-elect Donald Trump warned the so-called BRICS nations that he would require commitments that they would not move to create a new currency as an alternative to using the US dollar and repeated threats to levy a 100% tariff.