H I INFLATION-/ZINS-/WÄHRUNGSENTWICKLUNGEN I INFLATION-/INTERESTS-/CURRENCIES DEVELOPMENTS

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America’s interest rates are unlikely to fall this year (17.04.2024)
America’s interest rates are unlikely to fall this year (17.04.2024)
In theory a stronger dollar should help the rest of the world by making its exports more competitive, and growth in America should spill across borders as it sucks in imports. But a surging greenback can also disrupt trade and borrowing that is denominated in dollars. Economies that rely on commodity imports, such as Japan’s, face a double squeeze from a stronger greenback and a rising dollar price of oil, which is up by about 20% since early December and could rise a little further if strife in the Middle East worsens.
If high interest rates in America end its enviable economic run, rate cuts will eventually follow. Until that time comes, America’s monetary policy will remain a problem for the rest of the world.
Investors had begun 2024 pricing in more than 1.5 percentage points of interest-rate cuts over the course of the year. Today they expect rates to fall by only 0.5 points.
Mortgage-interest rates of nearly 7% have frozen much of the housing market.
America’s high and rapidly growing government debt is also becoming much more expensive to service
Financial markets will also feel the effects of continued high rates. The Fed’s doveishness in December propelled a stockmarket boom
USA
·economist.com·
America’s interest rates are unlikely to fall this year (17.04.2024)
When will Americans see those interest-rate cuts? (10.04.2024)
When will Americans see those interest-rate cuts? (10.04.2024)
It is now possible that the Fed will not cut rates before the presidential election in November, which would be a blow to the incumbent, Joe Biden.
The general conclusion today is that although growth has remained impressively strong, it now appears to be bumping up against the economy’s supply limits, and is therefore translating into persistent inflationary pressure. That calls for tight, not loose, monetary policy. The Fed, already cautious about cutting rates when inflation figures were more co-operative, is likely to be even more wary now.
The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma about whether to start cutting interest rates; investors must grapple with the reality that monetary policy will almost certainly remain tighter for longer than they had anticipated a few months ago.
USA
·economist.com·
When will Americans see those interest-rate cuts? (10.04.2024)
Central banks have spent down their credibility (03.04.2024)
Central banks have spent down their credibility (03.04.2024)
The combination of volatile inflation and diminished credibility means that the rich world’s policymakers must be agile. They will need to adjust interest rates more quickly and to a greater extent when inflation fluctuates—and tolerate the resulting economic volatility. In so doing they will come to look a bit like their colleagues in emerging markets. Without as long a record of low inflation behind them, central banks in Brazil, Chile and Poland all raised interest rates sharply in 2021; all have since cut them as inflation has fallen. Move fast and forcefully: this is the rule book that the likes of Mr Powell and Mr Bailey will have to follow.
Geopolitical tensions, trade wars, climate change and governments’ fondness for fiscal stimulus will all make inflation more volatile than it was in the sleepy decades after the 1980s.
INFLATION I KONTROVERSE THEMEN I CONTROVERSIAL ISSUES
·economist.com·
Central banks have spent down their credibility (03.04.2024)
Why America can’t escape inflation worries (20.03.2024)
Why America can’t escape inflation worries (20.03.2024)

Wichtigsten Fakten zum aktuellen Inflationsgeschehen in den USA zur Zinsentscheidung 03/2024:

  • FED hält am Zinssenkungsszenario von 3 x 0,25 Prozentpunkten für 2024 fest, senkte jedoch das Szenario von 4 auf 3 Zinssenkungen in 2025.

  • Im Januar und Februar hat sich die Kerninflation um 0,4% erhöht, was zu einer Inflation von ca. 5% in einem Jahr führen würde.

  • Preisindex für persönliche Konsumausgaben, ist das Maß für die FED; bei diesem Maß sehen wir eine Kerninflation von konstant 2%; das beruhigt die FED und veranlasst sich an baldige Zinssenkungen zu denken.

  • Was erklärt die cpi - pce- Divergenz? Der vpi ist strenger und seine Komponenten werden jährlich angepasst. Der pce wird tatsächlich jeden Monat angepasst und spiegelt beispielsweise wider, ob Verbraucher teurere Orangen durch billigere Äpfel ersetzen. Im Laufe der Zeit führt dies zu einem etwas geringeren pce- Preiswachstum.

  • Die neue mittlere Prognose der Fed für die Zinsen auf lange Sicht verschob sich knapp nach oben auf 2,6 %, was einen realen neutralen Zinssatz von 0,6 % impliziert. Das mag wie ein kümmerlicher, akademischer Unterschied klingen. Aber es steht im Mittelpunkt der Überlegungen der Zentralbanken zum Wachstum nach der Pandemie, insbesondere ob die Beamten der Meinung sind, dass die Zinssätze kontinuierlich höher sein sollten, um eine Überhitzung der Wirtschaft zu vermeiden, möglicherweise aufgrund steigender Produktivität oder übermäßiger Staatsausgaben.

USA
·economist.com·
Why America can’t escape inflation worries (20.03.2024)
Do not expect America’s interest rates to fall just yet (22.02.2024)
Do not expect America’s interest rates to fall just yet (22.02.2024)
delay cuts to interest rates.
booming jobs market has created an average of 289,000 jobs a month, more than double estimates of the sustainable rate
expansion remains healthy
In Europe unemployment is low but growth less strong.
Britain fell into recession at the end of 2023
The Chinese economy is in a funk and prices are falling. In Japan interest rates are still below zero. It would be considered a victory if inflationary pressures stayed strong enough to let the central bank raise rates.
That means monetary policy is likely to diverge
boost the value of the dollar, which is already climbing.
poorer countries struggling to borrow in dollars suffer most
The inflation problem is not what it was a year ago, but the world is not yet clear of the danger.
Over the past three months core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, have risen at an annual rate of 4%, up from 2.6% in the three months to August.
If interest rates do not fall there could be nasty surprises on Wall Street, too.
USA
·economist.com·
Do not expect America’s interest rates to fall just yet (22.02.2024)