NEWS I INFLATION/ZINSEN/WÄHRUNGEN I INFLATION/INTERESTS/CURRENCIES

418 bookmarks
Newest
America’s interest rates are unlikely to fall this year (17.04.2024)
America’s interest rates are unlikely to fall this year (17.04.2024)
In theory a stronger dollar should help the rest of the world by making its exports more competitive, and growth in America should spill across borders as it sucks in imports. But a surging greenback can also disrupt trade and borrowing that is denominated in dollars. Economies that rely on commodity imports, such as Japan’s, face a double squeeze from a stronger greenback and a rising dollar price of oil, which is up by about 20% since early December and could rise a little further if strife in the Middle East worsens.
If high interest rates in America end its enviable economic run, rate cuts will eventually follow. Until that time comes, America’s monetary policy will remain a problem for the rest of the world.
Investors had begun 2024 pricing in more than 1.5 percentage points of interest-rate cuts over the course of the year. Today they expect rates to fall by only 0.5 points.
Mortgage-interest rates of nearly 7% have frozen much of the housing market.
America’s high and rapidly growing government debt is also becoming much more expensive to service
Financial markets will also feel the effects of continued high rates. The Fed’s doveishness in December propelled a stockmarket boom
USA
·economist.com·
America’s interest rates are unlikely to fall this year (17.04.2024)
When will Americans see those interest-rate cuts? (10.04.2024)
When will Americans see those interest-rate cuts? (10.04.2024)
It is now possible that the Fed will not cut rates before the presidential election in November, which would be a blow to the incumbent, Joe Biden.
The general conclusion today is that although growth has remained impressively strong, it now appears to be bumping up against the economy’s supply limits, and is therefore translating into persistent inflationary pressure. That calls for tight, not loose, monetary policy. The Fed, already cautious about cutting rates when inflation figures were more co-operative, is likely to be even more wary now.
The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma about whether to start cutting interest rates; investors must grapple with the reality that monetary policy will almost certainly remain tighter for longer than they had anticipated a few months ago.
USA
·economist.com·
When will Americans see those interest-rate cuts? (10.04.2024)
Why America can’t escape inflation worries (20.03.2024)
Why America can’t escape inflation worries (20.03.2024)

Wichtigsten Fakten zum aktuellen Inflationsgeschehen in den USA zur Zinsentscheidung 03/2024:

  • FED hält am Zinssenkungsszenario von 3 x 0,25 Prozentpunkten für 2024 fest, senkte jedoch das Szenario von 4 auf 3 Zinssenkungen in 2025.

  • Im Januar und Februar hat sich die Kerninflation um 0,4% erhöht, was zu einer Inflation von ca. 5% in einem Jahr führen würde.

  • Preisindex für persönliche Konsumausgaben, ist das Maß für die FED; bei diesem Maß sehen wir eine Kerninflation von konstant 2%; das beruhigt die FED und veranlasst sich an baldige Zinssenkungen zu denken.

  • Was erklärt die cpi - pce- Divergenz? Der vpi ist strenger und seine Komponenten werden jährlich angepasst. Der pce wird tatsächlich jeden Monat angepasst und spiegelt beispielsweise wider, ob Verbraucher teurere Orangen durch billigere Äpfel ersetzen. Im Laufe der Zeit führt dies zu einem etwas geringeren pce- Preiswachstum.

  • Die neue mittlere Prognose der Fed für die Zinsen auf lange Sicht verschob sich knapp nach oben auf 2,6 %, was einen realen neutralen Zinssatz von 0,6 % impliziert. Das mag wie ein kümmerlicher, akademischer Unterschied klingen. Aber es steht im Mittelpunkt der Überlegungen der Zentralbanken zum Wachstum nach der Pandemie, insbesondere ob die Beamten der Meinung sind, dass die Zinssätze kontinuierlich höher sein sollten, um eine Überhitzung der Wirtschaft zu vermeiden, möglicherweise aufgrund steigender Produktivität oder übermäßiger Staatsausgaben.

USA
·economist.com·
Why America can’t escape inflation worries (20.03.2024)
Do not expect America’s interest rates to fall just yet (22.02.2024)
Do not expect America’s interest rates to fall just yet (22.02.2024)
delay cuts to interest rates.
booming jobs market has created an average of 289,000 jobs a month, more than double estimates of the sustainable rate
expansion remains healthy
In Europe unemployment is low but growth less strong.
Britain fell into recession at the end of 2023
The Chinese economy is in a funk and prices are falling. In Japan interest rates are still below zero. It would be considered a victory if inflationary pressures stayed strong enough to let the central bank raise rates.
That means monetary policy is likely to diverge
boost the value of the dollar, which is already climbing.
poorer countries struggling to borrow in dollars suffer most
The inflation problem is not what it was a year ago, but the world is not yet clear of the danger.
Over the past three months core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, have risen at an annual rate of 4%, up from 2.6% in the three months to August.
If interest rates do not fall there could be nasty surprises on Wall Street, too.
USA
·economist.com·
Do not expect America’s interest rates to fall just yet (22.02.2024)
Fed seen waiting longer to cut rates as inflation stays elevated (13.02.2024)
Fed seen waiting longer to cut rates as inflation stays elevated (13.02.2024)
If this keeps up with another month or two of inflation staying high, you can kiss a June (rate cut) goodbye and we’re probably looking at September,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. "It’s a hotter-than-expected report and it’s part of what the Fed has been alluding to when it says it’s too early to say that inflation has been beaten.
After Tuesday's inflation report, traders previously betting on a rate cut at the Fed's April 30-May 1 meeting now see June as more likely.
The consumer price index was up 3.1% in January from a year earlier, down from its 3.4% pace in December but more than the 2.9% economists polled by Reuters had been expecting.
USA
·reuters.com·
Fed seen waiting longer to cut rates as inflation stays elevated (13.02.2024)
Holzmann: 2024 nicht auf EZB-Zinssenkungen verlassen (15.01.2024)
Holzmann: 2024 nicht auf EZB-Zinssenkungen verlassen (15.01.2024)
Wenn die geopolitischen Risiken dazu führen, dass die Ölpreise steigen, würden die Gaspreise in die Höhe schießen, und das würde auch eine Reihe von Branchen treffen, die bereits betroffen sind. Vielleicht sogar die Dienstleistungsbranche”, sagte er. „Dann ist eine Rezession nicht unwahrscheinlich.”
„Und mit all dem Wissen, das wir derzeit haben, wäre es nicht ehrlich, das zu tun, weil wir nicht wissen, wie sich die Inflation entwickeln wird.”
Holzmann bekräftigte eine Argumentation von Ratskollegen, darunter EZB-Präsidentin Christine Lagarde und Chefvolkswirt Philip Lane, dass es “viel zu früh” sei, über eine Senkung der Zinsen zu sprechen.
Die geopolitische Bedrohung hat zugenommen,
Die geopolitische Bedrohung hat zugenommen, ich denke nicht, dass das, was wir bisher von den Huthis gesehen das Ende ist.
„Wir sollten überhaupt nicht auf eine Zinssenkung im Jahr 2024 setzen.”
EUROZONE
·diepresse.com·
Holzmann: 2024 nicht auf EZB-Zinssenkungen verlassen (15.01.2024)
Will America manage a soft landing in 2024? (04.01.2024)
Will America manage a soft landing in 2024? (04.01.2024)
The other reason for caution is that talk of a soft landing often occurs just before recession strikes (see chart). And that is in normal business cycles. Since the pandemic forecasters have performed poorly, underestimating growth and, until recently, inflation. That they now think a soft landing is arriving is good news. But don’t believe it until you see it
Financial markets are rejoicing at the prospect of such a “soft landing”.
But on those occasions inflation had not reached anything like the highs it did in 2022. That the Fed raised interest rates so fast in 2022 and 2023 would make a soft landing all the more exceptional.
There have been instances where rate rises have not led to a downturn, such as in the mid-1980s and late 1990s
It wants to loosen monetary policy in part because it believes that the natural resting-point of interest rates is lower than their current level. If the Fed is wrong, interest-rate cuts will act as an undue stimulus and inflation will reaccelerate. Fiscal policy will also still look on a crisis setting, given America’s enormous underlying deficit, which reached 7.5% of GDP during the 2023 fiscal year. Cutting that significantly could hurt.
In the early 1950s and the early 1970s, recessions struck nearly a full year and a half after inflation fell.
·economist.com·
Will America manage a soft landing in 2024? (04.01.2024)