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MANAGING FINANCIAL INSTABILITY IN 2025
MANAGING FINANCIAL INSTABILITY IN 2025

Managing Financial Instability Risks in 2025

Summary

  • The analysis positions itself as a warning about economic warfare, not financial advice

  • Key threats identified:

    • Alleged Russian influence over key US political figures including Trump and Musk
    • Strategic goal to dismantle US through internal turmoil and financial destabilization
    • Bitcoin characterized as an economic weapon in a zero-sum game
    • Christian Nationalist alignment with plans to destroy dollar/Fed system

  • Immediate financial risks for 2025:

    • Potential government shutdown due to no budget passage
    • Proposed $2 trillion budget cuts by Musk
    • US debt default risk as leverage for cuts
    • Strategic Bitcoin Reserve proposal threatening dollar stability

  • Critical timeline identified:

    • January 2 2025: Government runs out of money
    • January 3: New Congress installation
    • January 20: Treasury transition period
    • May 2025: Potential default date ("X-Date")

  • Recommended defensive measures:

    • Diversify holdings across bonds, real estate, gold/silver ETFs
    • Avoid Bitcoin/crypto investments
    • Contact representatives to oppose extreme measures

  • Additional considerations:

    • Moving to another country unlikely to help financially
    • Social Security potentially at risk
    • Banking system likely to hold but spreading funds recommended
    • Resolution depends on mainstream Republicans recognizing and countering these threats

  • Document context:

    • Living document subject to updates
    • Written by Dave Troy, presented as analysis of warfare operations
    • Includes extensive bibliography and related articles
    • Last updated November 16, 2024
#economy#govt/policy#finance#people/Trump#elections/2024#politics#reference
·docs.google.com·
MANAGING FINANCIAL INSTABILITY IN 2025
Max Pain (A Recent History)
Max Pain (A Recent History)
In The Umami Theory of Value, the authors discussed how entities create illusory value without improving material conditions. In 2020, they predicted a repulsive turn and a violent recoupling of value and material reality. However, the surreal crescendo of decoupling between value and reality that followed, which peaked in late 2021, saw incredible returns on random things and mainstreaming of risk. This period, which the authors call Clown Town, saw people taking risks they barely believed in and mistaking risk for opportunity. The authors then discuss the current era, Max Pain, in which everyone's opinion is right at some point, but never at the right time, and those who control the flows of information and capital are able to systematically profit while regular people struggle.
Money became increasingly fake-seeming as it diverged more and more from a hard day’s work and most conventional wisdom.
The growing number of people taking chances that they barely believed in (starting an Onlyfans, going all in on a memecoin, becoming a performative racist for clicks) reflected a rational response to seeing absurd and/or conventionally shitty ideas have outsized success (Bored Apes, Trump, the Babyccino).
bucking conventional wisdom in any direction became the order of the day. Contrarianism became incredibly popular. Taking the diametrically opposed position to consensus as a shortcut to standing out in a crowded and volatile field was a key Clown Town strategy.
As a subset of contrarianism, Hot Sauce Behavior became especially popular. Hot Sauce involves taking something basic or mid and applying a socially forbidden or mysterious spice to it (in place of, or to function as, the X factor or the je ne sais quoi). This element had to be shocking, bad, atavistic, or otherwise “not normal”—it could be Nazism, grooming, the Occult, Catholicism, outright aggression, the threat of violence, or the attitudes of obscure-to-you political groups—but in smallish amounts. It made peoples’ hearts race and adrenaline pump while they consumed something otherwise bland. (This was the Tension Economy as the new Attention Economy.)
If the 2020 degen was a gambler willing to go all in on a whim… …the 2023 degen is a sophisticated risk manager We have found ourselves in a new cultural era in which multiple overlapping crises and rising interest rates have led to an emergent reckoning. It is now widely understood that it was very stupid to play crazy games with tons of excess money instead of actually improving material reality. But certain questions remain: What the fuck is anything worth today? What’s the best way to manage risk while it all comes falling down?
In chess, today’s average player is more skilled than the one from yesteryear because online exposure of advanced theory has led to regular players making the moves of masters. As Virgil once said, “One kid does a new skateboard trick, then hundreds more can do it the next day around the world.”
Everyone should be able to use their increased intelligence and awareness to better navigate the world. In reality, the irony is painful: When everyone gets smarter, things get harder. If everyone is reassessing the most-effective-tactics-available all the time, it gets harder and harder to win, even though you’re smarter and “should be in a better position.” The Yale admissions office realizes thousands of applicants have watched the same obscure how-to-get-into-Yale TikTok, and decides to change the meta: Leadership is no longer a valuable quality.
Max Pain means, even when you’re right, you’re wrong; it describes a climate in which everyone’s opinion is right at some point, but never at the right time.
#trends#culture#finance#platforms#internet#politics#economy#govt/policy#govt#public-life
·nemesis.global·
Max Pain (A Recent History)