two things stand out when I look at this chart. First is how evident the 2008 Great Recession, the pandemic drop, and the post-pandemic recovery are in the data. And, given what we know about how this data is collected, that actually makes sense; BLS surveys about 631,000 worksites for their employment data as of the 12th of the month, then revises the monthly numbers as more data comes out. The corrections to the jobs reports in 2008 were likely caused by numbers that continued to decrease throughout consecutive months, while reports late in 2021 showed an economy actively adding jobs as it rebounded from the pandemic. In short: A growing job market has positive revisions, a shrinking job market has negative revisions.

National Review’s Dominic Pino wrote a thorough breakdown of the complex work that goes into producing these reports, noting how variables like seasonal employment patterns, self-employment, and new and shuttered businesses make creating an accurate snapshot of the economy on the first try very difficult. Furthermore, the response rate to BLS surveys has dipped since the pandemic. Ironically, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick fired the team of people who help us know how many people are getting fired, making it even more difficult to get accurate initial estimates.

employment in industries that Trump is trying to boost with tariffs have hit a wall: Since May, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and retail trade — three sectors most sensitive to tariff policies — have lost jobs. Meanwhile, both the rates of nonfarm hiring and workers quitting their jobs are steadily decreasing, showing a labor market that’s getting tighter and tighter.

Instead, this firing looks like a case of Trump injecting us-versus-them politics into another arena that could really benefit from reasonable discussion. Whoever takes the role next will still be attempting a difficult task with dwindling resources, but with the addition of a white-hot spotlight of the political culture war beating down on them.

Now, I hate the expression “conspiracy theory” and have been advocating against its casual use for a couple years now. I especially object to how commonly people use the term to slander popular beliefs that contradict institutional statements but are highly credible; we’ve learned that many “conspiracy theories” have ended up being true. But today, I’m going to use the expression to refer to things I’d define like this: a belief or set of beliefs which connect unrelated observations together based on a set of fundamentally false assumptions.

As the internet has proliferated unsubstantiated assumptions, conspiracies have become more abundant. The internet has also incentivized politicians, political influencers, media outlets, and pundits to constantly battle for attention. Attention means influence, which translates to votes, fundraising clicks, subscriptions and money, depending on what you are looking for. And easy ways to get attention include: stoking conspiracies, evoking fear, and providing shock value.

Republican conspiracy theories are at the center of conservative discourse and messaging. Conspiracy theorists on the left, in contrast, are usually marginalized