ChatGPT seems to have taken the world by storm in a very short time, but how does it compare with past leaps in technology? A working paper suggests that the US adoption of generative artificial intelligence has been much faster than that of personal computers and the internet.

Researchers from the St. Louis Fed, Vanderbilt University and Harvard Kennedy School found that two years after the release of ChatGPT, the pioneer in mass-market AI, adoption rates were nearly double those of PCs three years after the release of the IBM computer in 1981.

Unsurprisingly, younger generations are using generative AI more and more often than older ones. And like with PCs, users tend to be more educated and higher-income workers. Men are also more likely to use generative AI at work and at home, compared with women, the researchers found.

’Tis the season for 2025 outlooks, and JPMorgan Chase’s research team has published theirs. The bottom line: “moderating but strong global growth” — except in China — with a heightened focus on US trade, immigration, fiscal and regulatory policies.

World GDP will rise 2.2%, measuring the fourth quarter of 2025 with the final quarter of 2024 — down from 2.7% this year, the bank says. The US sees a 2% increase after a 2.4% gain. China, hit by a likely trade-war renewal with the US, sees growth slump to 3.2% from 4.8%, the JPMorgan team wrote in a report Tuesday. Euro area GDP rises 0.7% after 1.1%.

“The backdrop of policy uncertainty, combined with geopolitical risks, however, suggests increased macroeconomic volatility and a wider range of potential outcomes,” Hussein Malik, head of global research, wrote. (BLOOMBERG I 04.12.2024)